关于科技进步贡献率测算问题的探讨与分析——以河北省为例

经济增长及其质量问题是政府和学者们所关注的热点问题,科技进步贡献率作为衡量经济增长质量的参考指标有一定的科学性。文章从结构生产函数入手,通过引入势效系数,使得科技进步贡献率的测算更加科学。文章在具体测算过程中,对河北省国内生产总值、固定资产存量以及第一、第二和第三产业的劳动数据进行了平稳性检验,协整检验发现这五个变量具有长期均衡关系,从而可以说明建立的回归模型更加符合统计学规律。最后,以回归模型为基础,按照文章关于科技进步贡献率测算的方法,测算了河北省1990-2012年间的科技进步贡献率,并针对测算结果进行了深入分析,提出在当前经济形势下河北省经济调控的思路。

The Analysis of Contribution Rate of Science and Technology Progress --Hebei Province as an Example

It is the hot concern for the government and scholars to study the growth and the quality of economy, and the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress, as a measure of the quality of the reference index, has some scientific functions. This paper starts from the structure of the production function by introducing potential efficiency coefficient, making the calculation of the contribution rate more scientific. In this paper, in the process of the specific calculation, Hebei Province＇s GDP, stock of fixed assets and the first, second and third industries labor data were stationary test, it founds that these are five variables long-rnn equilibrium relationship which can explain the regression model was more in line with the law. Finally, with the basis of regression model, according to this method on the calculation of the contribution rate of science and technology, we calculate the contribution rate of science and technology of Hebei Province from 1990 to 2012 and estimate the in-depth analysis of economic regulation in Hebei Province presented in the current economic situation.