我国农产品零售价的影响因素之实证分析

近年来我国居民消费价格指数连连攀升,让百姓叫苦不已,生活成本上升。而其中以食品类消费价格指数对物价的贡献率为主。这跟农产品价格的节节高涨有着必然的联系。本文试图追本溯源,分析农产品价格上升的根源,选取了1995-2012年度数据作为样本,实证分析了影响农产品零售价的影响因素。回归结果表明农产品的零售价主要决定因素是农产品的生产成本,其他因素诸如城镇居民收入的变化对农产品价格影响不显著,这点也符合农产品作为必需品;其收入价格缺乏弹性的特性;国际食品市场价格也会对农产品价格造成一定的影响;可耕地面积的减少和城镇人口的上升,反而会激发出农业生产方式的改良,生产效率的提高,从而与农产品价格的变化的方向相反;货币供应量代表了市场的流动性,流动性过高,会促对农产品价格上升产生一定影响。

Empirical Study on the Factors Affecting the Retail Price of the Agricultural Products

This year, China＇s CPI has kept on soaring, which make the citizens feel great pressure on their rising daily spending. The most contribution to the rising price was mainly made by the food consumer consumption index, which has the unavoidable relationship with the price of the soaring farm foods price. The essay tries to find the sources of the rising price. We chose the data from 1995 to 2012 as samples to analyze empirically the factors affecting the price of the farm foods. The result concluded by the least square method shows that the main factor deciding the price of farm foods is the production cost of the farm foods. The results of other factors are as follows： First, the per capita disposable income of the urban residents has few effects on the price of the farm foods, which conforms to the character of the farm food as the necessities. Second, the price of the international foods has some positive impacts on the price of farm foods which is due to the increasing international trade between China and the world market. Thirdly, to our surprise, the decreasing arable area and the rising urban population have negative impacts respectively on the price of the farm foods, the reason for which maybe be the improvement on the way of production and the efficiency of the production leading to the decreasing of the farm food price. Fourthly, the rising money supply provides much more liquidity to the market, which leads to the rising price of farm price to some extent.