The rationality of EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss |
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Affiliation: | Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, 207 Giannini Hall #3310, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States |
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Abstract: | The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and electricity prices as well as natural gas consumption, electricity sales, GDP and energy intensity. |
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