中美农产品贸易收益核算及贸易摩擦的影响分析

在全球生产分割的背景下,海关统计数据由于包含大量重复计算的成分,并不能真实反映一国某部门的贸易收益情况。文章通过构建跨国投入产出模型,定义增加值出口为衡量双边贸易收益的指标,从增加值出口变化趋势、行业分布情况及贸易收益的实现方式,分别剖析2000~2014年中美两国农产品各部门的增加值出口情况。发现中美农产品双边贸易的盈余方实为中国,农产品行业的大量增加值隐藏在本国的其他部门中出口。中国市场对美国农业经济的拉动作用在提升,两国农产品行业实现收益的方式不同,中国越来越趋向于附加值含量低的粗加工中间品出口。两国农产品贸易关系紧密,对第三国市场的依赖不断下降,中美贸易摩擦对两国农产品行业的收益都将造成较大的冲击。

Calculation of Gains from of Sino-US Agricultural Trade and Analysis on the Impact of Trade Friction

In the context of global production segmentation, customs statistics fail to truly reflect the trade gains of a certain sector of a country because they contain a large number of repeated calculation components. This paper defines value-added export as an index to measure the bilateral trade gains by constructing a transnational input-output model and analyzes the value-added export situations of each sector of agricultural products in China and the United States respectively from 2000-2014 from the aspects of the change trend of value-added export, the distribution of industries and the way to realize trade gains. It is found that the surplus side of Sino-US bilateral trade in agricultural products is actually China, and a large amount of added value of agricultural products industry is hidden in other sectors of the country for export. The pulling effect of China’s market on the agricultural economy of the United States is increasing. The two countries have different ways of realizing gains of agricultural products industry. China is more and more inclined to export rough-wrought intermediate products with low added value. The close trade relations of agricultural products between the two countries, the declining dependence on the market of the third country and Sino-US trade frictions will have strong impact on the gains of the two countries’ agricultural products industries.