全要素生产率与湖南经济增长的实证分析

运用传统增长理论和内生增长理论对湖南近十多年来经济增长的实证分析,得出技术进步尤其知识存量的增加对湖南的经济增长的贡献不大,要素投入的贡献很大;除去这两个因素外的余下因素如制度变迁、人力资本的提高和产业转移对湖南经济增长的贡献也很大。湖南现实要素存量已大于均衡所需的要素存量,导致要素投入的不经济。由知识存量的增加所导致的技术进步中,单独的技术引进和研发对经济增长是负作用,而两者之间的交互项却是正作用,说明在技术引进的的基础上必须进行研发,才能达到对经济增长的促进作用。对湖南来说,走“引进-吸收-提高”模式的技术进步是适宜的。

TFP And a Case Study of Economic Growth in Hunan Province

By a case study on solow model and endogenous model of economic growth in recent ten years,it is concluded that the influence of technology advancing,especially the increase of knowledge is little on economic growth in Hunan while the contribution of factors as well as institution transformation,increase of human capital,industrial transformation have much influence on economic growth in Hunan.That the real capital is more than the equilibrium capital leads to the waste of factors.Technological introduction itself is negative to economic growth as well as research and development,but their interaction is positive which indicates that research and development on the base of technological introduction can hasten economic growth.So Hunan should adopt the model of "technological introduction,R&D".