澳门主要来源地赴澳游客规模预测分析

本研究对2008年1月至2010年2月期间大陆、中国香港、台湾三地赴澳门游客数量的每月统计数据进行汇总,并在此基础上依据这些数据本身的变动规律建立游客赴澳规模的预测模型。结果发现,在总体环境大体不变的情况下,澳门未来的游客规模呈现上升趋势,三大主要来源地内地、香港和台湾也均保持持续上升态势。但是,三地之间的上升状态仍有不同,大陆的上升幅度最快,香港其次,而台湾趋势则平稳上升。该方法通过数据本身的变动规律进行预测,可以克服多元回归模型中由于对自变量的认知有限而带来的预测偏差。它可以与多元回归模型方法作为澳门旅游规模预测的对照方法,从而有助于增强科学预测的可信度和准确度。

Tourists coming from Macao scale expectation analysis

This study collected monthly tourists’ da ta from three main sources Mainland,Hong Kong and Taiwan to Macao during January 2008 and February 2010.Based on the fluctuation of the data itself,we established the prediction model for the tourists to Macao.The results showed that in the stable overall environment,the size of tourists will generally rise up.The same trends extended all three main sources of Mainland,Hong Kong and Taiwan.However,the upward trends are respectively different between the three places,which are the fastest in the Mainland,Hong Kong followed,and stable in Taiwan.The method can overcome deviation from limited knowledge of the independent variables in the multiple regression models.It contributed to enhance reliability and accuracy for forecasting tourists’ size.