城镇化对耕地影响的研究

学术界在城镇化对耕地的影响问题上存在着较大的争论。本文利用中国科学院的土地利用遥感数据和社会经济统计数据,建立计量经济模型对我国东部14省城镇化对耕地的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明,总体经济增长是影响耕地变化的主要因素,不同城镇化模式对耕地的影响也不同,在其他条件相同的情况下,相对于农村住宅建设用地而言,城镇化对耕地减少还起到一些缓解的作用。

Urbanization and Cultivated Land Changes in China

There has growing debate on the impacts of urbanization on cultivated land in China. The overall goal of this study is to provide empirical-based evidence on the determinants of cultivated land changes and the impacts of urbanization on cultivated land based on land-use remote sensing data from 14 provinces of eastern China provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences and a unique set of socio-economic data collected by the. The result of this study shows that economic growth is major determinant of cultivated land changes, the impacts of urbanization on cultivated land depend on the modes of urbanization, after controlling the effects of other factors, township and city expansions use much less cultivated land than rural village development, which imply that urbanization may even slowdown the declining trend of cultivated land in China.