Why risk popular ratification failure? A comparative analysis of the choice of the ratification instrument in the 25 Member States of the EU

Following the European integration history, referenda are a risky ratification strategy. Despite establishing a convention and intense treaty negotiations, an unprecedented number of eleven member states announced a referendum for the ratification of the constitutional treaty in 2004, two of them finally failed and stalled the ratification process. This study examines the choice of the ratification instrument by an empirical analysis of the strategic interaction between government, opposition parties and the electorate in the 25 ratification countries. Our analysis considers country-specific conditions and correctly predicts most of the ratification choices in countries which announced referenda (65%) and almost all parliamentary ratification cases (93%). The results reveal that governments choose referenda when they expect low gains from a treaty reform or are confronted with a Euro-sceptical parliamentary opposition. We also find that governments are eager to separate popular votes from domestic electoral campaigns.