东亚通货膨胀趋势及决定因素

文章选取11个东亚国家和地区的数据为代表,采用针对不同国家的最优ARIMA模型预测东亚通货膨胀的发展趋势,发现东亚大部分国家面临较大的通货膨胀压力,通货膨胀持续上涨的趋势明显。并采用面板数据和Pooled-OLS分析法分析东亚通货膨胀的决定因素,研究表明东亚的通货膨胀形成的原因复杂,在惯性通胀、产出缺口、国际油价和粮食价格等多个因素的共同作用下形成;并发现次贷危机前后的东亚通货膨胀的决定因素有所不同,次贷危机前石油和粮食价格等成本因素大大地推动了东亚的通货膨胀,次贷危机后产出缺口等需求因素较大地影响了东亚的通货膨胀。针对东亚通货膨胀问题,文章提出包括中央银行改革、紧缩性货币政策、能源和粮食储备战略和调控个别行业或商品的对策和建议。

Trends and Determinants of Inflation in East Asia

This paper investigates the trends and determinants of inflation in East Asian countries and compares the differences in determinants before and after the subprime mortgage crisis.Collecting a sample of 11 countries or districts and using the best ARIMA models for different countries to forecast the trend of inflation,the paper shows that most East Asian countries are facing the pressure from increasing inflation.Applying the pooled-OLS method and the panel data of 11 countries or districts,it also shows that inertial inflation,output gaps,oil prices and food prices determine the inflation of East Asia.The determinants are different before and after the subprime mortgage crisis.Before the crisis,oil prices and food prices mainly affect the inflation while after it,output gaps are the main influencing factor.It also proposes some solutions and suggestions for policy-makers in the aspects of central bank reform,tightening monetary policy,oil and food reserve strategy,and price control.