连云港港口货物吞吐量自适应过滤预测模型及其Excel宏实现

利用自适应过滤预测法对连云港港口2008年前几个月货物吞吐量数据建立港口吞吐量预测模型,通过VBA编程实现Excel的宏按钮操作,按照预测误差方差最小原则交互实现迭代功能,选择对最小预测误差方差贡献最小的一期对应的权值作为最佳权值进行预测,获得了精确度较高的预测结果。

Self adaptive Filter Prediction Model of Lianyungang Port Throughput and Realization with Excel Macro

By analyzing the modeling process of the self-adaptive filter prediction,the self-adaptive filter prediction model is introduced to predict the port throughput based on the data of Lianyungang port throughput from several earlier months in 2008.Programs are realized to the iterative function alternately according to the principle of the smallest variance of forecast error using excel macro and VBA codes.In the iterative procedure the weights are chose to take the best weight corresponding to a smallest issue among the smallest variance of forecast error will carry on the forecast,which results show that the method can effectively solve the port throughput prediction problem.