不确定性与中国城镇居民储蓄率的实证研究

本文从不确定性收入、社会保险的参与情况对中国城镇居民面临的不确定性进行了界定,并使用2006年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2006)检验了不确定性对城镇居民储蓄率的影响。基于稳健OLS和可行广义最小二乘法(FGLS)的估计结果表明:不确定性收入与城镇居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的正相关关系,参加养老保险和医疗保险可以显著降低城镇居民的储蓄率。分位数回归的结果进一步显示:在各分位处,不确定性收入均对城镇居民储蓄率产生了显著的正向影响,并且影响强度随着储蓄率分位的上升而下降;而在储蓄率分布的0.5及以上中高分位处,参加养老保险可以显著降低城镇家庭的储蓄率;在储蓄率分布的顶端,参加医疗保险也与城镇居民储蓄率之间表现出显著的负相关关系。

The Empirical Research on the Uncertainty and the Household Savings Rate in Urban China

This article defines the uncertainty of China’s urban household in terms of the income volatility and participation of social insurance.Through the data from 2006 Chinese General Social Survey,we examine the relation between uncertainty and urban household savings rate.The results based on robust OLS and FGLS show that:there is a significant positive correlation between income volatility and urban household savings rate,and the participation of pension and medical insurance can significantly reduce the savings rate.Quantile regression results further show that:there is a significant positive correlation between income volatility and urban household savings rate on all quantile,and the strength of influence shows decline with the savings rate quantile rising. At the bottom of savings rate distribution,there is no significant relationship between the participation of pension or health insurance and savings rate,but at the top of distribution,pension and health insurance have significantly reduced urban household savings rate.