An Econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness

This paper finds that one can econometrically ascertain the determinants of default to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) through panel logit analysis. Creditworthiness is found to be determined by political and external factors in addition to economic variables. Default to the IBRD is seen to fall into a graduated hierarchy of default, whereby default occurs first to Paris Club and Commercial Bank creditors, with subsequent default to the IBRD being triggered by a high proportion of IBRD and short-term debt in the portfolio and other economic and political factors.