经济增长与雾霾污染治理:空间环境库兹涅茨曲线检验

文章在对国内外与经济增长、环境污染及环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）相关的文献进行述评的基础上,构建了中国经济增长与雾霾污染治理的理论分析框架,利用ArcGIS软件将NASA提供的2003-2016年全球遥感地图年均PM_2.5浓度栅格数据值解析为中国281个地级及以上城市具体的数值,采用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法与动态空间杜宾面板数据模型（SDDPDM）对中国经济增长与雾霾污染之间是否存在EKC曲线以及引致雾霾污染空间溢出的因素进行了经验识别。结果发现,中国（整体）、东部地区及中西部地区均存在雾霾污染EKC曲线（中西部地区没有通过显著性检验）且处于雾霾污染随着经济增长而加剧的EKC曲线第一阶段（拐点为第二阶段）。这与区域经济发展水平,特别是与区域经济发展水平离雾霾污染EKC曲线拐点的距离有关。区域经济发展水平离雾霾污染EKC曲线拐点越近,该区域雾霾污染EKC曲线越显著;反之,则越不显著。中国（整体）、东部地区及中西部地区经济发展水平离各自雾霾污染EKC曲线拐点的距离分别为中等、较近及较远,故,在上述三种情况下,雾霾污染EKC曲线的显著性会出现差异。交通运输对中国雾霾污染治理起到了消极作用;科技水平、产业结构合理化及教育水平对雾霾污染治理均能起到积极的促进作用。中西部地区FDI对中国雾霾污染治理所起的作用是积极的,而东部地区FDI则相反。

A Study on Economic Growth and Smog Pollution: Testing Spatial Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in China

China, as a developing country, faces the problems of severe environmental pollution, especially smog pollution. Scholars has increasingly focused on the relation between economic growth and smog pollution in China, and how to control smog pollution, in detail, identifying the key factors of smog pollution control. However, considering that many empirical works have explored the relation between economic growth and smog pollution by using provincial data and (or) PM₁₀ as the proxy variable for smog pollution, due to the small number of samples and inappropriate proxy variables, this may lead to regression bias. More importantly, the neglect of spatial factors, this may produce severely biased estimates. The paper reviews the literature on economic growth, environmental pollution and environmental Kuznets curve(EKC) at home and abroad, proposes a theory analysis framework of China's economic growth and smog pollution control, uses 281 data of cities at prefecture-level and above which be extracted by ArcGIS software come from NASA's global annual PM_2.5 grids, and based on exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and Spatial Dynamic Durbin Panel Data Model (SDDPDM) to test spatial environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in China, to identify the key factors which can control smog pollution, and then to discuss economic policies on the basis of the key factors. The results show that at the national level, the smog pollution environmental Kuznets curve exists in China; at the regional level, the curve exists in the eastern region, however, the curve exists in the central and western regions, but it is not significant. This is related to the distance between regional economic development level and the inflection point. The closer the regional economic development level is to the inflection point, the more significant the EKC of smog pollution in this region will be. On the contrary, it is less significant. The economic development level of the eastern region is relatively high, which is in the first stage of EKC (the inflection point is the second stage) of smog pollution intensified with economic growth, and is close to the inflection point. The economic development level of the central and western regions is relatively low, which is in the first stage of EKC of smog pollution, and is far from the inflection point. Therefore, EKCs of smog pollution show different significances in the above three cases. Transport has played a negative role in the control of China smog pollution. Science and technology, rationalization of industrial structure and education can play a positive role in promoting smog pollution control. The FDI of the eastern regions plays a negative role in smog pollution control, while in the central and western regions is positive. This paper makes three contributions to the literature.Firstly, considering that smog pollution has a certain time and space lag characteristics, Spatial Dynamic Durbin Panel Data Model (SDDPDM) is adopted for regression. Secondly, increasing the sample and the sample size. Thirdly, based on the consideration of the heterogeneity of spatial elements of these cities at prefecture-level and above, the samples were divided into eastern regions and central and western regions. Panel data of prefecture-level and above cities were used for the first time to verify the EKC between economic growth and smog pollution in China.