利率市场化、存款保险制度与银行风险承担——基于市场约束的研究

市场约束作为巴塞尔协议Ⅱ三大支柱之一以及衡量金融深化的重要标准,是近年来相关研究的热点之一。而利率市场化等又是提高银行市场约束程度的实质性推动力量。基于此,文章分析了利率市场化进程、存款保险制度与市场约束之间的关系及其对银行风险承担的影响,并藉此评估了存款保险制度实施的政策影响及利率市场化在其中所起的作用。结果发现:(1)我国银行整体的市场约束能显著抑制其风险承担,但分类的结果则表明地方性银行的市场约束效应最明显,大型银行次之,外资银行则不显著;进而,在考虑利率市场化因素之后,除外资银行以外的市场约束效应均有所增强,尤其是,利率市场化对价格约束效应的作用要远强于其对数量约束效应的影响。(2)基于合成控制法的估计结果表明,存款保险制度通过市场约束对地方银行的影响更明显,且存款保险制度通过价格约束对银行风险承担的影响较之其通过数量约束的作用效果要更强。(3)综合而言,存款保险制度会增加利率市场化通过市场约束作用于银行风险承担的正向影响。文章的研究结果显示利率市场化推进以及存款保险制度实施的影响开始趋于明显,并使市场约束机制作用的发挥逐渐与国外相符,但仍然有进一步深化的空间。

Interest Rate Marketization,Explicit Deposit Insurance System and Bank Risk-taking: Based on the Research of Market Discipline

Market discipline,as one of the three pillars of Basel Ⅱ and an important measure of financial deepening, is one of the hotspots in recent years. And interest rate marketization is the substantive driving force to improve the mark discipline. Based on this, this paper analyzes the relationship among interest rate marketization, deposit insurance system and market discipline and its impact on bank risk-taking, and estimates the policy effect of the implementation of deposit insurance system and the role that interest rate marketization played in it. The results show that:(1) The overall market discipline of China's banks can significantly curb its risk-taking. The results of the sub-samples show that the market discipline of local banks is the most significant, followed by large banks and foreign banks are insignificant. After considering the factor of interest rate marketization, the market discipline effect of banks other than foreign banks has been enhanced. In particular, the interest rate marketization has far more pertinent to the price discipline than to number discipline. (2) Estimates of difference-in-difference based on synthetic control method indicate that the interaction between the market discipline and the deposit insurance system is stronger than that of large-scale banks. The interaction between the price discipline and the deposit insurance has a stronger impact on the bank's risk-taking than the number discipline. (3) From the perspective of comprehension, the deposit insurance system will increase the positive impact of the interaction between the price(number) discipline and interest rate marketization on the bank's risk-taking. The results show that the impact of the interest rate marketization and deposit insurance system begins to be obvious, and the role of the market discipline mechanism also has gradually begun to coincide with foreign countries.