外资撤离速度与制造业转型升级——基于CGE对IT制造业的仿真分解分析

近年来,IT制造业等外资依赖性较强的产业面临的外资撤离风险不断升高,如何衡量和评估不同撤离速度下内资企业的发展稳定性和实现转型升级的支撑性?文章将CGE模型数值模拟与DEA分解分析相结合,考察不同外资撤离速度场景对IT制造业内资企业的影响,以及机制和路径。结果表明：1、当外资流入为0或者其存量以5%的速度小幅持续撤离时,内资企业受影响较小。较高的资本深化率、技术效率和技术进步使得其能够较快填补市场空白,具备企稳回升的能力;2、当外资存量以25%的较高速度撤离时,内资企业由于技术进步受到抑制,劳动生产率处于不可扭转的持续下滑趋势;3、外资企业在可见预期内仍然将是内资企业的主要技术进步来源,外资撤离会通过抑制内资企业技术进步,从而约束资本深化和技术效率的路径中对内资企业的稳定发展和转型升级产生负面影响。基于上述研究,文章提出相关政策启示和建议。

When FDI Leave: A CGE and DEA Analysis of the Impact of Divestment From IT Manufacturing Sector

A typical fact in recent years is that although China's manufacturing structure has been continuously upgraded during the last 20 years, but the growth rate of value added in manufacturing has been declining. According to the related study, the reason is that the rate of value added in high-tech industries is declining and lower than the rate of manufacturing added value. This problem is more significant in the IT manufacturing industry. However, the advanced sector of the technology value chain and most of the revenue of the entire industry are still occupied by FDI enterprises or MNEs. Meanwhile, the growth of domestic enterprises has not compensated for the slow declining of the added value of FDI enterprises. In the context of the deepening economic and social reform in China and the complicated changes in the international political and economic situation, some important industries like IT manufacturing, which is in the process of transformation and upgrading, are facing rising risk of divestment of MNEs. How to measure and assess the stability of development and support-ability of upgrading to domestic enterprises when facing divestment from MNEs. This paper combines the numerical simulation of CGE model with DEA decomposition analysis to study these issues on IT manufacture industry, as an typical case of high-tech manufacturing industry. The result shows that, during the several simulation periods:(1) The subordinate status of domestic enterprises and the dependence on technology spillovers from MNEs will last for a very long time. Even longer than expected. (2)In the situation of no FDI inflow or continuously exit in small-scale(like the speed 5% divestment of its capital stock each year), the higher capital deepening rate, technical efficiency and technological progress rate of domestic enterprises have the ability to stabilize and recover in this negative impact. (3)When MNEs exit in a large-scale(the speed of 25% divestment of its capital stock), the higher capital deepening rate of domestic enterprises can not reverse the downward trend of the technological progress rate and technical efficiency, which is difficult to achieve sustained and stable development and upgrading. (4)MNEs are still the main source of technological progress for domestic enterprises. The divestment of MNEs will impose different degrees of negative impact on the technological progress and technical efficiency of domestic enterprises. Based on the above conclusion, the paper proposes some policy implications and suggestions to government, (1) the high level technical cooperation between domestic firms and MNEs should be encouraged to promote technology internalization, for another, make mor efforts to assist domestic firms to develop global markets; (2) Even though domestic firms have already possessed certain risk-resistance abilities, the government should provide more resources to encourage domestic firms to develop and innovate critical technologies and fundamental capabilities, so as to help them reduce the dependence on spillover of MNEs; (3) In addition to continuously enhancing openness to FDI, the government should extend its supportive policies aimed for fundamental innovations across domestic firms to both ends of the industrial chain, to boost the development of domestic firms and help create a "Wintel"-like industrial alliance.