中美第一阶段经贸协议目标、现实挑战与未来展望

中美第一阶段经贸协议的签订缓解了全球经济压力,稳定了金融市场预期。跟一般国际经贸协议不同的是,这份协议载有具体的商品与服务清单及采购数量。以协议所指定的商品与服务基准年(2017年)出口贸易为出发点,从数量目标的实现基本条件和难易程度看,商品出口的数量目标尚可实现,但服务数量目标难度较大。第二轮谈判将重点讨论降低双边关税水平,但谈判时机和进程存在着许多不确定性。

Quantitative Targets,Achievability for Sino-U.S. Economic and Trade Agreement for Phase One and Second-Stage Negotiations

The signing of the Sino-U.S. economic and trade agreement eased global economic pressure and stabilized financial market expectations. Unlike any international economic and trade agreement, this agreement specifies goods and service procurement targets. On the basis of the data on U.S. export of these goods and service to China in 2017(the base year),the paper intends to study on the achievability and ease of reaching these targets, and to look forward to major contents and toughness for a second-stage negotiation. The thesis takes the view that the targets for the goods may be within reach, that those for the service exports may prove challenging, and the second-stage negotiation will focus on tariff reduction, although timing is not predictable.