澜湄流域制造业生产阶段数测算及其影响因素研究

在全球投入产出模型框架下,测算澜湄流域制造业生产阶段数,并对影响澜湄流域制造业生产分割程度的因素进行实证分析。结论为:澜湄流域制造业生产阶段数整体上呈上升趋势,生产结构复杂度明显增加,国际和国内外包呈互补关系;经济规模、研发强度及劳动力水平对澜湄流域制造业生产分割长度具有显著促进作用,资本化率、服务业增加值比重、FDI流入及私营部门的国内信贷量占GDP的比重,对澜湄流域制造业生产分割长度具有负面影响。因此,澜湄流域国家应积极改变参与全球分工的方式,提高金融市场开放程度,吸引外资的同时注重外资质量,并加大教育经费投入,增加研发创新和人才培养,提高劳动力水平,加快发展交通运输业和信息技术服务业。

Production Fragmentation of Manufacturing in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin and Its Factors

Under the framework of global input-output model, this paper calculates the number of production stages of manufacturing in the Lancang-Mekong river basin, and further conducts an empirical analysis on the factors affecting production fragmentation. The research shows that the number of production stage of manufacturing in the LancangMekong river basin is on the whole increasing, and the complexity of production structure is obviously increasing, international and domestic outsourcing are complementary. The scale of economy, intensity of research and development and level of labor force have positive effects on global production fragmentation. The intensity of capital, the ratio of service industry value-added, FDI and the proportion of domestic credit to the private sector have negative impact on the length of the global production fragmentation. Therefore, it is suggested that countries in the Lancang-Mekong river basin should actively change the way of participating in the global division of labor, improve the degree of financial market opening, attract foreign capital and pay attention to the quality of foreign capital. In addition,countries should increase investment in education, research, innovation and labor training, raise the level of the labor force, then accelerate the development of transportation and information technology services.