Recognising investment opportunities at the onset of recoveries |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, Campus Box 1208, Washington University, St. Louis MO 63130-4899, USA;2. Hyman P. Minsky Department of Economic Studies, University of Bergamo, via dei Caniana 2, 24100 Bergamo, Italy;1. Department of Economics, Business and Statistics (DEAS), University of Milan, Via Conservatorio 7, I-20122 Milan, Italy;2. School of Economics, Department of Economics and Public Finance “G. Prato”, University of Turin, Corso Unione Sovietica 218-bis, I-10134 Turin, Italy;1. Department of Business Administration, Tamkang University, 151 Ying-chuan Road, Tamsui, Taipei 25137, Taiwan;2. College of Management, Yuan Ze University, 135 Yuan-Tung Road, Chung-Li, Taoyuan 32003, Taiwan;3. Department of Business and Entrepreneurial Management, Kainan University, 1 Kainan Road, Luzhu Shiang, Taoyuan 33857, Taiwan;1. Texas State University-San Marcos, Clinic for Autism Research Evaluation and Support, United States;2. University of California, Santa Barbara, United States;3. University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States;4. The Meadows Center for the Prevention of Educational Risk, University of Texas at Austin, United States;5. University of Bari, Italy |
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| Abstract: | This model focuses on the decision to invest in novel fields of activity. Making such decisions implies that managers recognise the potentialities of emerging technological patterns, which is not a trivial ability. Ultimately, it depends on the mental categories that they developed through their working life, which may or may not be appropriate to the situation that they are facing.In this article, investment decision-making is modelled by means of an unsupervised neural network. Its neurons represent firms as decision-makers and their weights correspond to the coefficients of a disaggregated, flexible accelerator.The ensuing formalisation accounts for the often observed inability of firms that used to be highly successful with a certain technology to recognise and exploit novel, substitute technologies. Within economic theory, this formalisation may be seen as a possible micro-foundation for the beginning of recoveries in Goodwin's model of the business cycle. |
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