| Abstract: | This paper examines the martingale hypothesis for five Asian stock markets using the spectral shape tests of Durlauf (1991). Unlike the variance ratio test employed in previous studies (eg, Panet al, 1991), the spectral shape tests are consistent againstall stationary alternatives to the martingale null.The spectral shape tests were applied to daily and weekly returns on the stock indices of Thailand, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan over a period of 17 years. The results show that the martingale null is rejected for most markets. There is some evidence that the rejections may be due to low frequency or long memory influences.The authors are lecturers, Department of Finance and Banking, National University of Singapore. This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Asian-Pacific Financial Markets, September 9–11, 1993 in Singapore. We have benefited greatly from the comments of Y K Tse and other conference participants. |
