制度、公共政策与有利于穷人的经济增长—基于二元结构下的公共支出模型分析

尽管在过去的30年里中国在经济增长方面取得了巨大的成就，但近十几年来穷人的处境却开始恶化。如果没有公平的宪政秩序，就不可能创建符合穷人利益的制度与公共政策，进而就不可能使穷人从经济增长中获益。作为制度与公共政策重要组成部分的公共支出对有利于穷人的经济增长的形成有重要作用。本文的分析表明，二元结构下政府对农村的公共支出比例与穷人向现代部门的迁移能力与密切相关。当穷人向现代部门的迁移能力较强时，可以通过不断减少对农村的支出比例，增加对城市的支出比例来促进穷人的收入增长：当穷人向现代部门的迁移能力不足时，要使经济增长有利于穷人，必须增加政府对农村的公共支出比例来。

Institutions,Public Policies and Pro-poor Growth-An Analysis Based on a Model of Public Expenditure in Dual Economic Structure

The situations of the poor in China are undergoing deteriorating in last more than 10 years, though China gained tremendous achievements in past 30 years. If there is no fair constitutional order, it is impossible to create institutions in line with the interests of the poor and public policies, so it is impossible to make the poor benefit from economic growth. As an important part of institutions and public policies, public expenditure has deep influence on the building of Pro-poor growth. In this paper, the analysis shows there is close relation between the proportion of public expenditure to the rural and the migration from countries to cities of the poor under the dual economic structure. When the capabilities of migration is strong, the economic growth will be pro-poor though decreasing the proportion of the expenditure to the rural and increasing the proportion of the expenditure to the urban;Economic growth being pro-poor growth when capabilities is weak, the govern- ment must increasing the proportion of the public expenditure to the rural.