实际汇率与就业--基于内生劳动力供给的跨期均衡分析

文章在个体跨期最优模型中引入内生劳动力供给,并同时假定对资本流动存在限制,以此来分析实际汇率变动对就业的影响。结果发现:只有当消费者对商品消费的相对风险规避程度比较大,即消费的跨期替代弹性比较小时,本币实际贬值才会促进就业的增加,反之贬值会使就业减少。考虑到中国当前的具体情况,消费者商品消费的相对风险规避程度会比较大,因而人民币实际贬值会有利于就业。对中国的实证分析支持了这一结论,且该实证分析通过了实际汇率的超外生性检验。鉴于从长期来看中国消费者的相对风险规避程度有下降的趋势,过分的依赖于低币值的汇率政策来解决失业问题是不可行的。

The Real Exchange Rate and Employment--An Analysis of the Inter-temporal Equilibrium with Endogenous Labor Supply Incorporated

With the assumption of possible limitation existed on capital flow,in this article,we establish an optimizing inter-temporal agent model with endogenous labor supply incorporated.Under that framework,the effect of a change in real exchange rate on employment is examined.We find that: the real depreciation of home currency will stimulate employment only in the condition of a big consumer's relative risk aversion,namely a small inter temporal substitute elasticity of consumption.Otherwise the employment will decrease when depreciation happens.We assume that an actual depreciation of RMB will increase employment in recognition of the fact that China's relative risk aversion is big.The following empirical study supports the preceding conclusions and undergoes the super exogeneity test of the real exchange rate.Regarding that China's relative risk aversion exhibits a long-run decreasing trend;it is infeasible to over-depend on the weak RMB policy so as to solve the unemployment problem.