要素禀赋、贸易成本与中国出口产品多元化的目标国差异——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

文章基于2005-2014年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家HS-6出口产品数据,采用洛伦兹曲线和固定效应面板数据分别从理论和实证两个层面考察了要素禀赋和贸易成本对中国出口产品多元化的影响,在此基础上,进一步考虑了近年来中国对外直接投资（OFDI）的迅速增加对出口产品多元化的交互性影响。结果表明,中国与目标国之间的要素禀赋差异越小、地理距离越近、贸易一体化程度越高,中国出口到目标国的产品多元化水平越高;有形资本对出口产品多元化的影响最为显著,远远超过了人力资本和土地等其他要素禀赋;而OFDI的快速增长在一定程度上抑制了出口产品多元化水平的提高,意味着中国“走出去”战略应充分权衡出口多元化与OFDI的关系。

Factor Endowment,Trade Cost and Destination Difference of China's Export Product Diversification: Taking the Countries along “the Belt and Road” as Example

Based on the HS 6-digit export product data of China to the countries along"the Belt and Road"for the period of 2005-2014, this paper measures the diversification level of China's export product by the index of Theil, and then examines the effect of factor endowment, trade cost and the rapid increase in China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)on China's export product diversification respectively from two aspects:theoretically and empirically. The results show that the smaller the factor endowment difference or the geographic distance is, the higher the degree of trade integration is, the higher the product diversification level between China and the destination will be. Effect of physical capital on export product diversification is the most significant, far more than the other elements such as human capital and land endowment. The rapid growth of OFDI to a certain extent inhibits the improvement of the export product diversification, implying the trade-off between OFDI and export diversification when China implements "Go Aboard" strategy.