人口质量、政治制度与奥运绩效——来自四届奥运会的证据

基于2000-2012年四届夏季奥运会共72个国家的面板数据，论文对奥运绩效的国别差异进行了实证分析。我们发现引入以健康指数为代表的人口质量和以分权指数为代表的政治制度，可以很好地解释人口基数和经济规模无法解释的奥运绩效国别差异。首先，政治制度对奥运奖牌数量的影响呈现U型，即分权国家和集权国家获得的奖牌数都比较多，而中间国家获得的奖牌数相对较少；其次，健康指数、人口基数、经济份额、宗教分化以及东道主效应对奖牌数量均具有显著的正向作用，而种族分化具有负面作用。上述发现对于我国实施科学的奥运战略具有重要的指导意义。

Populaition Quality,Political Institution and Olympic Performance:Evidence Based on Four Olympics Games

Based on 2000-2012 Transnational Data of fourth Summer Olympics 72 countries, the paper explored national differences of the Olympic medal empirical. The results are as follows:overall regression found that the number of Olympic medals&democracy presents national differences of the characteristics of U-type, the number of medals democracies and authoritarian countries receive more than the country which is neither too democratic, but not too authoritarian; In addition,population scale, health index, the religious fractionalization, the economic effects of the host and GDP share have a significant positive effect on the number of medals,while the ethnic fractionalization have the negative effects. We found that when introduced to the health index as the representative quality of the population and political systems of democracy index, may well explain the population and the economy scale can not explain this difference in the performance of the Olympic Games.These findings have important guiding significance for our country to carry out scientific Olympic strategy.