中国财政赤字的通货膨胀效应

文章主要以1996年第1季度至2015年第3季度的居民消费价格指数CPI、财政赤字、利率和货币供应量的季度同比增长率等数据为基础,通过构建时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR) 模型,对我国财政赤字的通货膨胀效应进行了检验,并探讨了货币当局和财政当局的主导权归属问题。主要得出了二方面结论：一方面是现阶段财政赤字在短期内具有“凯恩斯效应”,而从长期看,既遵循“李嘉图等价”原理,又具有微弱的“挤入效应”;另一方面是财政当局虽占优于货币当局,但财政赤字需要配合货币政策才能影响价格水平。据此,向政府提出了“新常态”时期的政策建议,即政府在短期内可以通过赤字财政的方式诱导适度通胀来实现去库存,从供给侧引导经济增长,同时也要保持货币政策偏紧,增强人民银行的独立性,进一步优化财政收支结构。

The Inflation Effect of Chinese Financial Deficit

This paper mainly based on the consumer price index, the fiscal deficit, the interest rate and money supply from the first quarter of 1996 to the third quarter of 2015 year-on-year growth rate data,through construction of variable parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR model) and the inflation effect of China's fiscal deficit was tested, and discusses the monetary and fiscal authorities, leading right of ownership. It is concluded that the "Keynes effect" is in the short term, the " Ricardo equivalence" is in the long term, and also showed a weak "crowding in effect" ;the financial authorities dominant the monetary authority, but fiscal deficits need to tie monetary policy to influences the price level. And during the "new normal" period, government may induce moderate inflation in the short term by way of deficit financing, while maintaining tight monetary policy, and should strengthen the independence of the Central Bank meanwhile optimize financial revenue and expenditure structure.