政府支出与经济波动——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

政府支出能否起到稳定经济增长的作用是一个值得研究的重要问题。使用1987-2013年30个省市自治区的面板数据，文章考察了政府支出对我国经济波动的影响。在考虑政府支出规模的内生性后，2SLS估计结果发现政府支出对经济波动的影响具有两面性。一方面政府支出规模主要发挥了财政自动稳定器作用，因而减少了经济波动；另一方面，政府支出变动对总量产出冲击较大，从而增加了经济波动。进一步控制了贸易开放、通货膨胀、货币政策冲击、金融发展和产业结构等因素，估计结果表现出较好的稳健性。研究结论意味着，在保持经济稳定增长方面，需要权衡政府支出规模与政府支出变动对经济波动的影响。

Government Spendingand Economic Volatility:An Empirical Analysis Based on China's Provincial Panel Data

Whether government spending can play a role in stabilizing economic growth is an important issue.Using panel-data for 30 provinces during the period of 1987-2013, this paper examines the effects of government spending on economic volatility.Dealing with endogeneity of size of government spending, 2SLS results find government spending has two-edged impact on economic volatility.On the one hand,size of government spending reduces economic volatility through fiscal automatic stabilizers working; on the other hand,fiscal volatility shocks have a great impact on total output, thus increase economic volatility.Further,the result is strongly robust to the introduction of controls, such as trade openness, inflation, monetary policy shocks, financial development and industrial structure.The results suggest that in order to maintain stable economic growth, there is trade-off between size of government spending and fiscal volatility shocks.