数字经济如何影响制造业全球价值链地位：机制分析与空间溢出

当前，数字经济已成为稳定经济增长的新优势。构建数字经济影响制造业全球价值链地位的数理模型，利用2005—2020年中国省级面板数据，从数字产业化和产业数字化两方面构建省级数字经济发展水平综合评价指标体系，实证研究数字经济对制造业全球价值链地位的影响。结果表明，数字经济能显著提升省域制造业全球价值链地位且具有动态非线性递增效应；与东部地区和非“一带一路”沿线地区相比，数字经济对中西部地区和“一带一路”沿线地区制造业全球价值链地位的提升作用更大。就内在机制而言，提高技术创新能力和推动产业结构升级是数字经济影响制造业全球价值链地位的两条基本路径。进一步的空间杜宾模型分析表明，数字经济对制造业全球价值链地位的影响存在空间溢出效应。

How the Digital Economy Affects the Position of Manufacturing in the Gobal Value Chain: Mechanism Analysis and Spatial Spillover

At present, China's traditional processing and manufacturing industry has been located in the "value depression" of the smile curve for a long time, with small value-added space. The high-tech industry has suffered from low-end structure and low-tech industry, and faces the risk of being "locked by the low-end". The digital economy can break through the space-time constraints. The dissemination of digital knowledge and information can weaken the incompleteness of regional knowledge and information to a certain extent, help enterprises to acquire knowledge spillover, enhance technological innovation capacity, promote the production efficiency of the manufacturing industry and enhance its global value chain status. The development of the digital economy relying on the Internet can effectively support the needs of epidemic prevention and control, as well as the economic and social development.#br#On the basis of the vigorous development of digital economy, this paper deduces the mathematical model of the impact of the digital economy on the global value chain status, and evaluates the impact of the digital economy and the dynamic non-linear effect from the perspective of the global value chain status of manufacturing industry. With the help of historical data instrumental variables, it conducts the robustness test of dynamic panel estimation, and studies the heterogeneity of the impact by samples from different regions and different policies. By taking technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading as intermediary variables, the study explores the indirect impact mechanism. Considering the spatial characteristics of digital economy and the spatial dependence of manufacturing global value chain status, it then studies the spatial spillover effect of digital economy on manufacturing global value chain status with the help of spatial Dobbin model.#br#In this paper, from the two aspects of digital industrialization and industrial digitization, 8 secondary indicators and 25 tertiary indicators are selected and a comprehensive evaluation indicator system of the development level of the provincial digital economy is constructed by the principal component analysis method, and then the global value chain status of the manufacturing industry is expressed by the export complexity of the manufacturing industry. With the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020, the empirical research shows that the development of digital economy has significantly enhanced the global value chain status of provincial manufacturing industry and has a dynamic non-linear increasing effect; moreover, there is regional heterogeneity. Compared with the eastern region and the regions along the the Belt and Road, the digital economy plays a greater role in promoting the central and western regions and the regions along the the Belt and Road. As far as the internal mechanism is concerned, improving the technological innovation ability and optimizing the industrial structure upgrading are the two basic paths for the digital economy to affect the export complexity of manufacturing industry. In the digital economy, the technology and knowledge spillover effects of different provinces make technological innovation permeate with each other, which is conducive for enterprises to breaking through the existing R&D difficulties to strengthen technological innovation and accelerate the transformation of technological achievements. The digital economy can broaden the boundary of industrial chain division of labor, accelerate the transformation of traditional industries, effectively reduce the processing costs and transaction costs among labor division entities, improve the efficiency of resource allocation and production management, and enhance the status of global value chain. Meanwhile the spatial Dobbin model shows that there is a spatial spillover effect on the impact of the digital economy on the export complexity of the manufacturing industry. The development of the digital economy will not only affect the export complexity of the manufacturing industry in the province, but also be conducive to the improvement of the export complexity of the manufacturing industry in the neighboring provinces.#br#Therefore,in order to promote the upgrading of the global value chain of China's manufacturing industry, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of digital economy, optimize the innovation environment and industrial structure.Regional digital economy collaborative development networks are expected so as to give full play to the spatial effect brought by the digital economy, realize cross regional division of work and cooperation and promote the coordinated development of various provinces.#br#