住房耐用品、土地市场分割与货币失踪之谜

2008年国际金融危机后，我国M2供给增幅远高于CPI上涨幅度，这一现象被学界称为“货币失踪之谜”。本文构建了一个两部门新凯恩斯货币模型来研究这一问题。当外部需求下降后，央行降低利率以提振经济，房地产部门和非房地产部门同时扩张。由于住房属于耐用消费品，具有一定的金融属性，其需求对利率变化更敏感。利率下降后，住房需求相对普通消费品需求上升更多。因为存在土地市场分割，商住用地供给弹性较小，住房需求上升导致商住用地价格上升较多，地价上涨提升了房地产企业的抵押融资能力，房地产部门进一步扩张。普通消费品需求对利率反应小，需求较弱导致工业用地价格上升幅度较小，非房地产部门抵押融资能力小幅提升。因此，非房地产部门产出和CPI只温和扩张。Ramsey最优货币政策模拟表明，只有实现了房地产部门与非房地产部门均衡发展，才能实现社会福利最大化。

Houses as Durable Goods,Land Market Division and the Missing Money Puzzle

The 2008 financial crisis caused a drastic decline in China's exports and slowed its economic growth. In response, China adopted stimulus plan to stimulate the economy. However, the resulting increase in money supply (M2) did not cause an increase in inflation, which is called the missing money puzzle. This puzzle was caused by the boom in the real estate sector and a sharp increase in housing prices. There were variations in land prices as well, as the prices of commercial and residential land rose sharply while the prices of industrial land remained relatively stable. This study explains the above phenomena in a unified framework.We build a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model comprising the real estate and non-real estate sectors to explain the missing money puzzle. Both sectors use labor, capital and land as material inputs of production. The entrepreneurs of both sectors face financial frictions, that is, they use land and capital as collateral to borrow from households. Land is provided by the local government. There is a land market division: an entrepreneur in the housing sector uses commercial and residential land to produce housing, while an entrepreneur in the non-housing sector uses industrial land to produce goods for consumption.The demand for housing, as a durable good, is more sensitive to changes in interest rates because of its near-constant shadow value and almost infinite elasticity of substitution. Therefore, when the interest rate declines, the demand for housing increases more than that of non-housing goods, and housing prices rise sharply. Furthermore, the increase in housing demand encourages real estate entrepreneurs to increase production and the material inputs of production, including land. As land of different types or in different markets cannot be transformed, commercial land prices rise significantly because of the fixed land supply. High land prices increase the collateral value of land and relax the borrowing constraints of real estate entrepreneurs, enabling them to gain more capital to increase production, which leads to a further expansion in the real estate sector. However, non-housing goods are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, so the demand for non-housing goods and the price of industrial land increase slowly, thereby limiting the borrowing capacity of entrepreneurs in the non-real estate sector. This leads to a modest rise in the non-real estate sector output and the Consumer Price Index. We also compute the optimal Ramsey policy and compare it with the benchmark model. The monetary policy should be stable and limit the increase in the housing sector to achieve optimal social welfare and balanced development in the housing and non-housing sectors.Based on the study findings, we make the following policy recommendations. Monetary policy tools should play the dual functions of aggregation and structure as houses are assets for living in, not for speculation. The monetary policy should maintain stability, and structural monetary policy instruments should be improved. It is also necessary to increase construction for residential purposes and affordable housing and develop the long-term rental market. Moreover, a prudent management system for real estate should be implemented to achieve balanced development of the housing and non-housing sectors.