经常账户冲击、资本账户管理与中央银行货币政策操作

经常账户负向冲击及引发的宏观变量联动性通常对各经济体央行货币政策操作构成挑战。本文构建了融入经常账户冲击的小型开放经济DSGE模型,比较了采取不同资本账户管理工具(数量型和价格型)情景下,央行执行数量型货币政策规则、盯住CPI通胀泰勒规则、盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则下,经常账户负向冲击对货币政策操作的异质性影响及传导机制,并进行了福利分析。主要结论如下:第一,经常账户负向冲击将对本国央行货币政策操作构成一定影响;第二,资本账户管理可以成为缓冲经常账户负向冲击的防火墙,价格型资本账户管理工具与盯住PPI通胀泰勒规则相结合造成的福利损失较小;第三,经常账户贸易端与收益端双重负向冲击对一国货币政策操作的影响更大,但公众预期到的经常账户恶化对货币政策操作的影响将有所减弱。本文认为,转型经济体央行应倾向于执行价格型货币政策规则,最优货币政策应在稳定价格水平与缓释风险方面进行权衡,适度降低对名义汇率的关注度,稳慎推进资本账户开放进程,并可优先选择价格型资本账户管理工具。

Current Account Shocks,Capital Flow Management and Central Bank Monetary Policy Implementation

The global economy is currently caught in a conflicting scenario of low growth and high inflation characterized by frequent balance of payments adjustments and abnormal cross-border capital flows. The outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 generated additional external shocks that have further exposed the global economy to uncertainties and vulnerabilities and prompted monetary authorities to weigh the effectiveness of various capital flow management tools. The state of the global economy also poses a major challenge to central banks' monetary policy implementation.The relationship between different countries' current account movements and monetary policy adjustments should not be neglected. When significant adjustments are made to the current account, the supply of base money and the trend of inter-bank lending rates also show huge fluctuations, with the trends of changes appearing completely consistent at certain points. However, further research is needed to determine the extent to which current account adjustments and reversals caused by external shocks have influenced different countries monetary policy implementation since the 2008 global financial crisis. In this paper, we examine how the central banks of different countries that are facing external shocks and that adopt different capital flow management tools determine their optimal monetary policies.This paper builds a DSGE model of a small open economy with current account shocks and compares the heterogeneous effects of negative current account shocks on monetary policy implementation. We also examine the transmission mechanisms of different capital flow management tools when the central bank implements quantitative monetary policy rules, the CPI inflation-based Taylor rule and the PPI inflation-based Taylor rule. We also conduct a welfare analysis. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows. First, we find that negative current account shocks affect the central bank's monetary policy implementation. Second, capital flow management can impede negative current account shocks and using a combination of price-based capital account management tools and the Taylor rule of targeting PPI inflation can cause less welfare losses. Third, we find that while dual negative shocks on the trade and investment earnings sides of the current account have a significant impact on a country's monetary policy implementation, public expectations of current account deterioration have less impact on monetary policy implementation. The findings of this paper have a number of policy implications. First, central banks should attach great importance to the adjustment and reversal of the current account, monitor external balances, try to distinguish the sources of negative shocks, implement appropriate remedies and make quick policy adjustments. Second, central banks should seek to enhance their credibility and actively guide the public to have consistent expectations to actively reduce the occurrence of inconsistent dynamic rules. Third, the central banks of transition economies should be open to implementing price-based monetary policy rules. The optimal monetary policy should balance price stability with risk mitigation, moderately reduce the attention to the nominal exchange rate, prudently promote the process of capital account opening, and use price-based capital account management tools to reduce the distortion of social welfare. Finally, central banks should implement and improve the two-pillar framework of monetary and macro-prudential policy, and strengthen the collocation and coordination of macro-policies.