中国对非援助的出口贸易效应——基于出口增加值的视角

基于Eora26投入产出表数据和全球中国官方金融数据库,本文检验了中国对非援助与中国对非出口增加值的因果关系及机制。研究结果显示：(1)中国对非援助可以显著提升中国对非出口增加值,在进行了一系列的稳健性检验和处理了内生性问题后,该结论依然成立;(2)提高非洲国家的交通和通信设施质量是中国对非援助影响出口增加值的主要机制;(3)中国对非援助的出口增加值效应会随产业分类、援助类型的不同而产生差异;(4)进一步研究表明,非洲接受的DAC发展委员会国家和国际多边组织援助的“碎片化”会削弱中国对非援助的出口增加值的促进作用,这种影响在经济实力和政府治理能力较弱的非洲国家更为明显。本文的结论为中国对非援助的贸易效应提供了进一步的经验支持,并揭示了中国对非援助影响中国对非出口增加值的内在规律。这对于加强中非经贸关系,构建“中非命运共同体”具有重要意义。

The Export Effect of China's Aid to Africa: An Perspective of Trade Value-added

Against the background of the impacts of uncertain events such as the Covid 19 epidemic and Sino-US confrontation, it is of great significance for China to continuously advance the process of a high-level open economy. Based on this, this paper aims at empirically studying the impact and mechanism of China's aid to Africa on China's export value-added by using Eora26 input-output table data and global Chinese official finance dataset. The results show that:(1) The China's aid to Africa can significantly increase the value-added of China's exports to Africa. It is still valid after robust tests by changing the measurement method of aid and decomposing export value-added in different parts, as well as dealing with the endogenous problem; (2) According to the typical factual analysis, we found that China's aid to Africa is mainly focused on economic infrastructure. Therefore, we believe that China's aid to Africa can reduce the trade cost by improving the transportation and communication infrastructure of African countries, thus promoting the increase of the value-added of China's export to Africa. This is empirically proved in this paper and is consistent with our inference hypothesis; (3) Furthermore, the heterogeneity tests were conducted because the effects of China's aid to Africa on China's export value-added varies with industries and aid types. In particular, the aid to social infrastructure, economic infrastructure and production sector has a more obvious promoting effect on China's export value-added. And in the secondary and tertiary industries, China's aid to Africa can significantly increase the value-added of China's exports to Africa; (4) As the “fragmentation” of aid to Africa has become increasingly prominent in recent years, we further explored whether the “fragmentation” of aid would affect the trade value-added of China's aid to Africa. The results of the analysis shows that the “fragmentation” of the major aid to Africa could erode the positive effect of China's aid to Africa on the value-added of China's exports to Africa. However, this erosion of the “fragmentation” of aid to Africa is more pronounced in African countries with weaker economic strength or governance capabilities.Based on the conclusions drawn in this paper, firstly, we argue that China's aid to Africa has a positive impact on both China and Africa. We should abandon the concept of foreign aid as opposed to domestic development. Secondly, China's aid to Africa should be “targeted” so as to amplify the positive impact of China's aid to Africa on China. Aid projects should be skewed towards economic infrastructure, which is of greater significance on both sides.Finally, China must strengthen international cooperation, actively integrate into the aid coordination information communication platform of African countries, and make full use of the existing coordination mechanism in Africa to alleviate the negative impact of the “fragmentation” of aid to Africa.The conclusion of this article provides further empirical support for the trade effect of China's aid to Africa, and reveals the inherent law of China's aid to Africa affecting the value-added of China's exports to Africa. And the conclusion is also of great significance for strengthening China-Africa economic and trade relations and building a “China-Africa Community” with a shared future.