人力资本相对超前投入及对经济增长的影响

研究目标:构建相对指标,将中国与世界各国的人力资本相对超前投入程度进行比较,得出中国人力资本相对超前投入程度的真实评判。研究方法:利用经人均GDP调整后的预期寿命及预期受教育年限构建相对指标,即人力资本相对超前投入(HCRAI)指数,以测量一国的人力资本相对超前投入的程度。研究发现:2014年中国HCRAI指数排名远高于人均GDP的排名,也远高于美国HCRAI指数排名,表明中国更加注重人力资本投入;1970年以来中国HCRAI指数排名呈现先上升后下降的“U”形曲线,1980年中国HCRAI指数排名世界第一,这说明中国改革开放后的发展在一定程度上弱化了人力资本投入;跨国的数据分析也表明,HCRAI指数可以在很大程度上解释一国经济的长期增长率,这也表明我国前后两个30年发展的连贯性。研究创新:通过相对指标替代现有绝对指标,测度各国以人为本的程度,更好地体现“公平”的概念。研究价值:HCRAI指数跨国比较及长期的演变为我们理解中国经济的新常态及供给侧改革提供了新的视角。近30年来中国HCRAI指数不断下降也迫使我们转换发展思路,寻求更加以人为本、更加包容的可持续发展路线。

Human Capital Relatively Advanced Investment and Economic Growth Effects

Research Objectives:Create relative indicators to compare the advanced human capital investments of China and other countries and develop a realistic assessment on the degree of China's human capital relatively advanced investment.Research Methods:Relative indicator is created with life expectancy and expected length of education adjusted for per capita GDP,human capital relatively advanced investment(HCRAI)index,to measure a country's relative advanced human capital investment.Research Findings:In 2014,China's HCRAI index was far above its per capita GDP ranking and the U.S.HCRAI index ranking,which suggests that China attached greater importance to human capital investment.Since 1970,China's HCRAI index ranking has experienced a U-shaped curve,increasing at first and then reducing subsequently.In 1980,China's HCRAI index ranked the first in the world.In the post-reform era,however,China's HCRAI index ranking declined.Analysis of cross-national data also indicates that HCRAI index may largely explain the long-term growth rate of a country's economy.This finding demonstrates the continuity of China's development from 1949 to 1978 and in the post-reform era.Research Innovations:By replacing current absolute indicator with relative indicator,this study measures the degree of importance a country attaches to human capital and better reflects the concept of fairness.Research Value:Cross-national comparison and long-term evolution of HCRAI provide us with a new perspective on the new normal of China's economy and supply-side reforms.China's falling HCRAI index over the past three decades should force us to change our approach to development and seek a more human-centered and inclusive path of development.