对外直接投资对产能利用率的影响研究

研究目标:准确测度对外直接投资对企业产能利用率的影响。研究方法:通过倾向得分匹配和倍差法建立实证模型考察企业对外直接投资(OFDI)对产能利用率的影响,并对其影响机制进行深入探讨。研究发现:中国工业部门整体的产能利用率多年维持在0.65左右;OFDI对产能利用率的提升具有显著的积极影响,在加入控制因素以及行业地区、时间、地区固定效应甚至更换匹配比例之后该结果仍然稳健;投资到发展中国家的OFDI比投资到发达国家的OFDI对产能利用率的积极影响效果更强;OFDI对产能利用率的影响还体现出明显的所有制结构、企业产能利用率水平的差异;OFDI主要是通过影响生产侧产能利用率的提升,进而对综合产能利用率产生积极影响,这一效果是通过对技术进步与投资替代产生中介效应而实现的。研究创新:基于产能利用率在生产侧与消费侧的决定因素,本文系统讨论了OFDI对产能利用率的影响机制。研究价值:为产能过剩相关治理政策的出台提供决策依据。

A Research on the Influence of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Capacity Utilization

Research Objectives:Accurately measure the impact of foreign direct investment on the capacity utilization rate of enterprises.Research methods:Employing the propensity score matching and difference-in-difference methods to investigate the impact of OFDI on capacity utilization,as well as its influencing mechanism.Research Findings:The capacity utilization index of overall industry has remained at around 0.65,and experiences a cliff style decline in 2010;OFDI has a significant positive impact on the improvement of capacity utilization,and the results are still robust after adding other control factors,industrial,regional,time fixed effects,or even changing the matching ratio;the positive effect of OFDI in developing countries on capacity utilization is stronger than in developed countries;The impact of OFDI on capacity utilization also reflects the obvious differences in ownership structure and enterprise capacity utilization level,in the enterprises with higher level of capacity utilization,the effect is stronger;OFDI has a positive impact on the comprehensive capacity utilization,mainly through the impact of capacity utilization in the production side,and this effect is achieved through the intermediary effect of technological progress and investment substitution.Research Innovations:Based on the determinants of capacity utilization on the production side and the consumption side,this paper systematically discusses the impact mechanism of OFDI on capacity utilization.Research Value:This research can provide decision-making basis for policies to eliminate excess capacity.