中国城镇养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应

在公共养老保险制度下,可以通过调整养老保险的缴费率或养老金计发办法来影响参保人一生中的养老金纯受益,从而实现代际间和代际内的收入再分配。本文利用中国国家统计局2002年的城市住户调查数据,分别估计城镇参保职工在1997年养老保险制度和2005年最新养老保险制度下的终生养老金纯受益,并以此从代际间和代际内的角度对中国养老保险制度改革的收入分配效应进行定量分析。分析表明:在1997年的改革方案下改革前的养老保险制度中存在的逆向收入转移效果得到改善;但在2005年改革方案下,2002年时40岁以上的群体中存在较明显的逆向收入转移倾向。另一方面,从代际分配来看,1997年改革方案的代际不平衡大于2005年改革方案;在2005年改革方案下各代人的养老金纯受益都有所提高,但这是以养老保险制度的缴费率和养老金计发办法不变,养老财政收支能维持平衡以及参保人在整个工作期间按规定缴费为前提的。

The Distributional Effects of Public Pension Reform in Urban China

Using the micro data of the NBS Urban Household Survey 2002, this paper studies quantitatively the distributional effects of Public Pension Reform in urban China, from intra generational and inter generational perspectives, by measuring lifetime net benefits that urban employees obtain under the public pension system in 1997 and the newest one announced in December 2005, respectively. The results indicate that the regressive income transfer existing before implementation of the reform is improved as a consequence of the 1997 reform. However, the Act of 2005 Reform generates the obvious inclination of the regressive income transfer among people who exceed 40 years old in 2002. On the other hand, from the viewpoint of inter generational distribution, the inter generational inequality resulted from 1997 reform is greater than that from 2005 reform. More over, all generations would receive higher lifetime net benefits under the Act 2005 Reform, but it must be based on sustainable pension system and participants' full pension contribution during their duration of employment.