| Abstract: | Several researchers (Armstrong, 2001; Clemen, 1989; Makridakis and Winkler, 1983) have shown empirically that combination-based forecasting methods are very effective in real world settings. This paper discusses a combination-based forecasting approach that was used successfully in the M4 competition. The proposed approach was evaluated on a set of 100K time series across multiple domain areas with varied frequencies. The point forecasts submitted finished fourth based on the overall weighted average (OWA) error measure and second based on the symmetric mean absolute percent error (sMAPE). |
