Cross-decision social effects in product adoption and defection decisions

Researchers and practitioners have long been aware of the capacity to use information on consumers' product adoptions and defections to forecast the adoption and defection behavior of others in their social networks. Yet, herein, we suggest that such information still holds substantial untapped predictive potential. Specifically, this paper is the first to define and investigate cross-decision social effects, i.e., the effects of customer defections on network neighbors' adoption decisions, and the effects of customer adoptions on network neighbors' defection decisions. We incorporate these effects into a conceptual framework that enables us to explore them concurrently with same-decision social effects (the effects of adoptions on adoptions and of defections on defections), which have been researched extensively. We develop a multi-event hazard model to describe this framework, and estimate it using two unique data sets on a communication network and on adoption and defection dates for a mobile add-on. We obtain strong empirical evidence for negative cross-decision social effects that are larger for strong ties than for weak ties.