税收结构、政府支出与经济增长

本文构建包含税收结构和政府支出的内生增长理论模型,运用我国1998-2017年31个省市自治区数据,通过固定效用面板数据模型,研究税收结构与在预算平衡下政府支出对长期经济增长影响,并详细分析了东中西部地区间的差异。主要结论有:1.将增值税纳入理论模型之中,研究发现,税收对长期经济增长没有影响,政府支出用于提供公共技术品时会有长期增长效应。2.在满足预算约束平衡时,虽然税收对长期经济增长没有影响,但税制结构具有配置效应。3.不同税种对东中西三个区域具有差异性,需要通过制定合理的税制结构政策来促进区域的经济发展。

Tax Structure,Government Expenditure and Economic Growth

This paper builds a theoretical model of endogenous growth that includes tax structure and government expenditure.Using data from 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1998 to 2017,this article examines the impact of tax structure and government expenditure on long-term economic growth under a balanced budget through a fixed utility panel data model.It also analyzes the differences between the eastern,central and western regions in detail.The main conclusions are as follows:1.We have incorporated VAT into the theoretical model.The study finds that taxation has no effect on long-term economic growth,and government expenditure has a long-term growth effect when it is used to provide public technology goods.2.When meeting the budget constraint balance,although tax has no effect on long-term economic growth,the tax structure has a configuration effect.3.Different tax types have differences in the three regions,and it is necessary to formulate a reasonable tax structure policy to promote regional economic development.