A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football |
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Affiliation: | 1. School of Management, University of Bath, Wessex House, Bath BA2 7AY, United Kingdom;2. University of Glasgow Business School, University of Glasgow, Gilbert Scott Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom;3. Essex Business School, University of Essex, SO4 3SQ, United Kingdom |
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Abstract: | The over/under 2.5 goals betting market allows gamblers to bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will exceed 2.5. In this paper, a set of ratings, named ‘Generalised Attacking Performance’ (GAP) ratings, are defined which measure the attacking and defensive performance of each team in a league. GAP ratings are used to forecast matches in ten European football leagues and their profitability is tested in the over/under market using two value betting strategies. GAP ratings with match statistics such as shots and shots on target as inputs are shown to yield better predictive value than the number of goals. An average profit of around 0.8 percent per bet taken is demonstrated over twelve years when using only shots and corners (and not goals) as inputs. The betting strategy is shown to be robust by comparing it to a random betting strategy. |
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Keywords: | Probability forecasting Sports forecasting Football forecasting Football predictions Soccer predictions Value betting |
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