信息技术产业发展对经济增长的门槛效应和动态效应分析

本文把信息技术因素引入传统的经济增长模型,构建了一种相对更加完善的经济增长分析框架,并利用2000～2010年中国及各省域的面板数据,着重分析了信息技术产业发展对经济增长的门槛效应和动态效应。结论表明:信息技术产业发展在整体上始终对经济增长有密切且显著的正向影响,且存在门槛效应。各省域在利用信息技术产业发展促进经济增长方面不存在高水平陷阱,但存在中低水平陷阱。信息技术产业发展对经济增长高水平地区的影响更大。整体而言,中国在利用信息技术促进经济增长领域仍存在较大潜力。

Analysis of the Threshold Effects and Dynamic Effects of Information Technology Industry Development on Economic Growth

This paper introduces information technology factor into traditional economic growth model,and builds a relatively more comprehensive analytical framework of economic growth.Using 2000-2010 panel data of China and the provincial domain,this paper specially makes analysis of the threshold effects and dynamic effects of information technology industry development on economic growth.The conclusions show that information technology industry development always has a closely and significantly positive impact on economic growth in total,and there is a threshold effect.Low and middle equilibrium traps exist in provincial domain as to the information technology industry development to promote economic growth,but high equilibrium trap doesn’t exist.The development of information technology industry has a greater impact on the region of higher economic growth.There is still large potential left to promote economic growth in the use of information technology in general.