经济转型期的产业断层危机

产业断层危机不同于一般经济周期,它产生于产业结构升级转换中的结构失衡,表现为中长期的结构错落和增长速度迟缓。根据引发的因素可以分为“康氏周期拐点型”、“泡沫经济引致型”、“货币危机引致型”和“产业升级转换型”等类型,中国目前正处于工业化中期阶段,产业结构正面临着向新兴技术和新兴产业转型阶段,到2005年前后,我国将面临产业结构大规模升级,届时由于现阶段的资源瓶颈、产业回补、出口压力、技术瓶颈、产业虚高度化和尤格拉周期因素,可能会发生较大的产业断层危机。

Industrial Fault Crisis in the Period of Economic Transition

The industrial fault crisis, different from the general economic cycle, grows out of the structural imbalance in industrial structural escalation and conversion, and is symptomatic of medium and long term structural disorder and slow growth rate. It may, in light of initiating factors, fall into "type of Kondratieff cycle","roam economy caused type, monetary crisis caused type", "type of industrial escalation and conversion", etc.. At present China is in the medium phase of industrialization and her industrial structure is being transformed to a period of newly rising technology and industry. Prior or posterior to 2005, our country will be faced with the large scale escalation of industrial structure and more serious industrial fault crisis will then probably occur, owing to the factors of the present resources bottle neck, industrial back compensation, export pressure, technology bottle neck, industrially false highness, Juglar cycle, etc..