人民币实际有效汇率对我国加工贸易影响的实证分析

人民币汇率制度形成机制改革以后,人民币汇率的长期升值趋势将进一步对我国以加工贸易为主的国际贸易产生影响。本文运用协整分析、格兰因果检验和建立回归模型等计量经济学方法对1981-2006年的人民币实际有效汇率与加工贸易进出口的关系进行研究。得出的结论是:人民币实际有效汇率下降会刺激加工贸易进口、出口的增长,对此文章给出合理的解释。

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB and Processing Trade

After the reform of the establishment mechanism of the exchange rate of RMB,the appreciation trend of the exchange rate of RMB in the long run will produce a further effect on China's processing trade.Based on the time series data from 1981-2006,this paper uses econometric analysis methods such as Granger causality test,co-integration and regression model to analyze the relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and processing trade.And the conclusions are as follows:the exchange rate of RMB has increased the import,export of processing trade,which is opposed to the traditional exchange rate elasticity theory,thus the paper gives some explanations.