决定房地产投资的“短边”研究

从过去几轮政策实践来看,我国房地产调控往往是对其供给和需求同时进行,有时 方向甚至是矛盾的。在此背景下,本文基于“短边原则”探讨了房地产市场和房地产投资中的 短边因素,分析了土地与资金对房地产投资的影响,并对2017年房地产投资趋势进行预判。本 文首先根据房地产库存指标判断,供给是决定目前房地产市场及其投资变化的短边;其次,根 据土地、资金与房地产投资的关系,本文认为,在房地产供给方面,2016年10月开始的新一轮 房地产调控中,土地是短边。未来土地（而非资金）或继续成为决定房地产投资走势的短边, 房地产投资将继续延续回落态势。

Research on the Key Factors that Affect Real Estate Investment: Based on the Short-side Rules

According to the experience from real estate regulation over the past few years, real estate suppliesand demands are both controlled at the same time. But the policies on them are sometimes contradictory. There are twoimportant factors of the real estate investment-land and fund. This paper discusses the more important factor based onthe "short-side rules" at different times, and prejudges the trend of real estate investment in 2017. First, based on thereal estate inventory, supply determines the current real estate market and real estate investment changes in the shortside. Furthermore, land is the short side in this new round of real estate regulation beginning from October 2016. In thefuture, land (rather than fund) may continue to be the short side and restrict the investment. Investment will probablycontinue declining in the following season.