货币政策目标和篮子货币最优权重的选取——基于贸易收支稳定的视角

本文首先建立模型分析在使贸易收支变动方差最小化条件下,汇率指数最优权重的选取,也就是把汇率指数的构建和货币政策的目标结合起来。本文构建了国际收支变动关于篮子货币权重的理论模型,根据贸易收支方差波动最小获得篮子货币的最优权重。进一步,本文对最优权重进行了数值模拟分析,得到出口或进口稳定的最优篮子货币的权重,在此基础上,本文模拟了人民币对美元汇率的走势,并比较了有效汇率稳定目标下篮子货币的权重和人民币对美元汇率的变化。结合宏观经济政策目标重新确定参考篮子货币汇率指数权重,有利于完善和建立参考一篮子货币的汇率制度,为篮子货币制度制定提供理论指导。

Monetary Policy Goal and the Selection of Optimal Weights of a Basket of Currencies:A Perspective of Trade Balance Stability

This article firstly sets up the model to analyze the selection of the optimal weights of exchange rate index under the condition of the trade balance variance minimum,in other words,combining the establishment of the effective exchange rate index and the monetary policy target to select the optimal basket currency weights.Than it sets up the theoretical model of balance of payments with respect to the weights of currency basket.The optimal weights of the basket currency are obtained according to the trade balance variance minimum.Further,the article has carried on the numerical simulation analysis to get the optimal weights of the export or import stability,and it simulates the trend of RMB exchange rate against US dollar on this basis,comparing the weights of currency basket and the change of RMB exchange rate against US dollar.Combining macroeconomic policy goal to determine the optimal weights with reference to the Renminbi exchange rate index will be beneficial to establishment and improvement of the exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies,and providing a theoretical guidance for setting up the basket currency system in China.