退耕补贴到期对贫困地区农户消费的影响研究

目的 退耕补贴是维持贫困地区农户消费水平和维持生活消费的重要收入来源，首轮退耕还林补贴到期是否影响了退耕农户的消费是亟待探究的关键性问题，但鲜有研究对此进行探讨。方法 文章基于河北与四川8个贫困县831份农户实地调查数据，利用PSM-DID模型估计退耕补贴到期对农户消费水平和结构产生的影响，并利用组间差异分析和分位数回归来探究退耕补贴到期对异质性农户消费行为的影响。结果 退耕补贴到期对农户总消费、生存性消费、发展性消费和享受性消费影响系数分别为-0.091%、-0.087%、-0.097%和0.030%，贫困农户和低、中消费水平农户受到退耕补贴到期的较大影响。结论 退耕补贴到期对样本农户消费水平产生明显负向影响，同时一定程度上不利于农户消费结构改善。贫困农户相较于非贫困农户、低中消费水平农户相较于高消费水平农户更易受到退耕补贴到期的负向影响，为帮助提高贫困地区农户消费水平，维护脱贫攻坚成果，该研究依据实证结果提出政策建议。

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXPIRY OF FARMLAND RETURN SUBSIDY ON THE CONSUMPTION OF FARMERS IN POOR AREAS

Subsidy for returning farmland to forests is an important source of income to maintain the consumption level and living consumption of farmers in poor areas. There are few studies on whether the expiry of the first round subsidy for returning farmland to forests affect farmer''s consumption, which is a key issue that needs to be urgently explored. Based on the field survey data of 831 farmers in 8 poverty-stricken counties in Hebei and Sichuan province, this research estimated the impact of the expiry of farmland conversion subsidies on the consumption level and structure of farmers by using the PSM-DID model, and explored the impact of the expiry of farmland conversion subsidies on the consumption behavior of heterogeneous farmers with inter-group difference analysis and quantile regression. The results showed that the impact coefficients of the expiry of farmland conversion subsidies on the total consumption, subsistence consumption, development consumption and enjoying consumption of farmers were -0.091%, -0.087%, -0.097% and 0.030%, respectively, which showed that the poor farmers and low and medium consumption farmers were greatly affected by the expiry of farmland conversion subsidies. In summary, the expiry of farmland conversion subsidy has a significant negative impact on the consumption level of sample households, and is not conducive to the improvement of household consumption structure to some extent. Poor farmers are more likely to be negatively affected by the expiry of farmland conversion subsidies than non-poor farmers, and households at low and medium consumption levels are more likely to be negatively affected by the expiry of farmland conversion subsidies than households at high consumption levels. To help improve the consumption level of households in poor areas and maintain the achievements of poverty alleviation, this study provides some policy suggestions based on the empirical results.