斗而不决:关于专制内卷化的经济学分析

在中国近代以前的历史上,专制王朝虽时有更迭,专制制度却挥之不去。通过构建两阶段动态博弈模型,可以对此进行分析。之所以会出现王朝更迭而专制制度不变的格局,主要是因为被统治者不具备能够与统治阶层相抗衡的持久、稳定的权力禀赋,冲击虽能在短期内提高被统治者的实际权力禀赋,甚至能推翻原统治阶层,但这种提高是暂时的,无法对新统治阶层形成长远、持久的威慑和抑制,法治自然无从产生。

Unfinished Fighting: Economic Analysis of the Involution of Autocracy

This article develops a two-stage dynamic model to analyze the involution of autocracy.The author shows that the involution of autocracy takes root in the difference between ruling class' and masses' endowments of power.Although external shocks may enhance masses' de facto endowment of power,the enhancement is temporary by nature and poses no threat to the forthcoming ruling class.Without stable and lasting check and balance,the rule of law will never come into being.