Airline hubs in the Single European Market: A benchmark analysis

‘Liberalization’ of European air markets could allow the formation of airline hubs to obtain the associated economies of scope and scale. This study simulates the formation of these hubs. A model of U.S. hub location, estimated as a function of demographic and economic characteristics, is applied to European cities to identify likely hub locations. The results provide a benchmark for evaluating future airline competition in the Single European Market. However, the study is only an approximate prediction of hub location because political and structural constraints will keep the European air market from developing the competitive atmosphere found in the U.S..