利率上浮及其与贷款基准利率的关系探究

对31个省市2005-2015年的1~3年期贷款利率上浮幅度进行测算,并通过统计分析与面板模型对其与贷款基准利率的关系进行探索性研究,结果显示:贷款利率上浮幅度与贷款基准利率负相关,贷款利率上浮幅度自2010年开始快速上升;不同地区的上浮幅度差异大,存在明显的区域异质性,中国人民银行通过基准利率调整进行宏观调控时,主要对北京市、上海市的贷款利率形成传递效应,对其它地区的影响相对较小;且随着时间的推移,基准利率政策的有效性越来越低.因此,为发挥基准利率政策的有效性,应在适度区间进行基准利率调节,加强中国人民银行对地方性商业银行的宏观审慎管理能力,同时与数量型货币政策相配合.

Interest Rate Floating Range and Its Relation with Benchmark Interest Rate

This paper calculates the floating rate of 1-3 year loan interest rate in 3 1 provinces in year 2005-2015,and explores the relationship between the loan interest rate and benchmark in-terest rate using statistical analysis and panel model.The results show that:the floating rate of loan interest rate and benchmark lending rates are negatively correlated,the floating rate of loan interest rate began to rise rapidly since 2010;the floating rate of loan interest rate has obvious re-gional heterogeneity;The benchmark interest rate policy has a significant transfer effect on the loan interest rate in Beijing and Shanghai,the transfer effect on other areas is relatively small;With the passage of time,the People's Bank of China's benchmark interest rate policy is becoming more and more inefficient.The policy implications are as follows:in order to play the benchmark interest rate policy effectively,adj usting the benchmark interest rate should be in the appropriate range,the People's Bank of China should strengthen macro prudential management ability of local commercial banks,at the same time,the adj ustment of the benchmark interest rate should be in line with the quantitative monetary policy.