多元城镇化、门槛效应与房地产库存：理论解释与实证检验

基于我国房地产和城镇化省际面板数据,构建面板模型和门槛效应模型,考量多元城镇化、门槛效应对房地产库存的影响.结果表明:人口城镇化、空间城镇化和产业城镇化对房地产库存具有显著抑制作用,资本城镇化对房地产库存具有显著促进作用,技术城镇化对房地产库存的影响存在门槛效应.随着技术城镇化跨越人均可支配收入相应门槛值,其对房地产库存的影响由显著到不显著再到非常显著,由促进作用转变为抑制作用,影响系数的绝对值也转变为较大.

Multiple Urbanization, Threshold Effect and Real Estate Inventory: Theoretical Explanation and Empirical test

This paper is based on provincial panel data of real estate and urbanization in China. The panel model and the threshold effect model are constructed to analyze the effect of urbaniza-tion and the threshold effect on real estate inventory.The results show that population urbaniza-tion,space urbanization and industry urbanization have significant negative effect for real estate stock,and capital urbanization has a significant positive effect for real property.There exists the threshold effect for impact from technical urbanization on real estate stock.As the technology ur-banization reaches the threshold value for per capita disposable income,its impact on real estate stocks seems to be significant,then not significant and lastly very significant.The effect of which change from promoting to inhibition,and the value of effect coefficient also grows larger.