Persuasion as a contest |
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Authors: | Stergios Skaperdas Samarth Vaidya |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, University of California, Social Science Plaza, Irvine, CA, 92697-5100, USA 2. School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Hwy, Burwood, VIC, 3125, Australia
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Abstract: | We examine how the probability of persuading an audience depends on resources expended by contending parties as well as on other factors. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the audience makes inferences solely based on the evidence produced by the contestants. We find conditions that yield the well-known additive contest success function, including the logit function. We also find conditions that produce a generalized ??difference?? functional form. In all cases, there are three main determinants of audience choice: (i) the truth and other objective parameters of the environment; (ii) the biases of the audience, and (iii) the resources expended by the interested parties. |
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