东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型

随着东亚地区双边或多边贸易协定的不断增加,经济一体化成为了各国的最终诉求。然而农产品贸易问题却始终是谈判进程的主要阻力之一。本文侧重于对东亚区域内东盟10国和中日韩3国,就劳动密集型和资本密集型农产品分阶段进行恒定市场份额(CMS)的比较分析。得出的主要结论是:东亚地区农产品市场总体需求潜力很大;产业和结构的合理和完善可在一定程度上提高农产品的竞争力;中国农产品出口份额相对较大但主要依靠低廉的价格,并且竞争力逐渐减弱;政府制定的贸易政策和外部机会在未来农产品贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,区域经济合作是一种理想的选择方式。

The Decomposition and Contrast Research of Agricultural Products International Competitiveness Among East Asia"10 +3"Countries:Based on CMS Model of Subdivided Agricultural Products

With the increasing of bilateral trade agreements in East Asia,integration is the ultimate demand,however,trade negotiations concerned agriculture has always been one of the major resistance.Through divided phases constant market share(CMS) comparative analysis of the labor-intensive and capital-intensive agricultural products based on the ASEAN ten countries and China,Japan and South Korea three countries,the author obtained: the overall market demand potential for agricultural products in East Asia area is great;it can improve the competitiveness of agricultural products to some extent with reasonable and proper industry and the structure;the share of China’s agricultural products exports is relatively large,but mainly rely on low prices and competitiveness is weaker and weaker;the trade policy made by government and external opportunity will play increasingly important roles in agricultural products trade in future and the regional economic cooperation is a kind of choice.