政策缝隙、风险源与社会稳定风险评估

公共政策在中国发展进程中成为经济增长、体制改革和国家转型的依赖工具、手段和路径。政策的后果也是社会不稳定的一个来源。在推进公共政策的社会稳定风险评估过程中,关键的问题是如何识别风险源。文章在案例研究的基础上,提炼出"政策缝隙"概念,用来理解社会不稳定的来源。政策缝隙体现在对实质性利益调整或再分配的过程中,政策文本出现了时间、空间和不同社会群体之间的不一致现象,而政策不一致即成为风险源。在评估出风险源基础上,实现源头治理的关键是以科学和民主的方式来制定精细化方案弥补政策缝隙。

Policy Gap, Risk Origin and Social Stability Risk Assessment

With the development of China, public policy has already become an effective tool on which the country can rely. Issuing public policies can boost economic development and institutional reform, so as to change China into a better country. But one of the consequences of issuing public policies is that it will cause social unrest. Thus we have to assess the risk of social unrest caused by issuing certain public policies. The crucial point is to identify the source of risk during the process of risk assessment. In order to identify and understand the cause of social unrest, we put forward the concept of the "policy gap" on the basis of a case study. The policy gap refers to the different versions of the policy discourse caused by differences in time, place and social groups during the process of adjusting interests or redistributing profits. Different versions of certain public policies may cause social unrest. So we have to deal with the problem at its root by assessing the risk of social unrest. It is most important that we formulate a detailed scheme to fuse the policy gap scientifically and democratically.