国际货币体系失衡下的中国汇率政策

中国汇率升值预期过高的基本原因是货币性的,而实际上实体经济层面升值压力并不大。人民币将会在双向波动、小幅升值过程中保持相对稳定,并在适当时机适度扩大浮动区间。当前,汇率对世界贸易基本格局的影响已经弱化,不能依赖汇率自发调整贸易失衡。中美应加强合作,共同进行经济结构调整。中国应强化内需主导战略,与亚洲国家一起在经济和货币上,逐步摆脱对美国的过度依赖。

On China Foreign Exchange Reform in the Unbalanced International Monetary System

The over expectation of RMB appreciation is basically due to monetary reasons. But actually the appreciation pressure on the real economy level is not so significant. RMB will remain relatively stable while moving in both ways and sustaining small appreciation. The floating range will be enlarged when it's right time to do that Meanwhile, the influence of exchange rate on the fundamental infrastructure of international trade has been weakened and we can never rely on exchange rate to adjust the trade unbalance automatically. China and the United States should strengthen the cooperation to jointly adjust economic structure for both countries. For China, we need to further highlight the domestic-demand-oriented strategy, and together with the effort of other Asian countries in economy and currency, gradually ease over dependence on the US economy.